How Dangerous is COVID-19? | SciShow News - Lake Harding Association

How Dangerous is COVID-19? | SciShow News

How Dangerous is COVID-19? | SciShow News

By Micah Moen 100 Comments March 18, 2020


{♫Intro♫} Last week, the World Health Organization announced that the fatality rate of COVID-19 is higher than we thought. On March 3, they noted that, worldwide, about 3.4% of the people who had contracted the infection had died from it, instead of the
2% figure that had been making the rounds. There have been all kinds of reactions to
that, but no matter how you feel, the key thing to understand is that this number is
fluid and squishy, not some unchanging property of the virus. Right now, we don’t know how deadly this
outbreak will be globally, because predicting epidemics is really hard. But what we all do right now can have a big impact on that final toll. You might think pinning down how dangerous
a disease is—or what epidemiologists would call its virulence—would be pretty straightforward. After all, some statistics that get at this,
like Case Fatality Rate or Ratio, are deceptively simple. You just take the number of deaths, divide
by the number of cases, and boom, you have the CFR—and can go about comparing it to other outbreaks. For example, you might have seen people saying
that, on average, the seasonal flu’s CFR is only about 0.1%, which makes the new coronavirus
34 times as dangerous. But that comparison is misleading, as the
flu’s fatality rate can vary between seasons, and COVID-19’s is likely to change. See, a virus’s deadliness varies based on
the unique circumstances of an outbreak, and we’ve been very wrong in the past when we
tried to predict the CFR too early. On the one hand, that 3.4 number could be
an underestimate, because COVID-19 isn’t instantly fatal. People who have died so far have done so two
to eight weeks after their first symptoms. So, some of the people currently counted as
survivors may not end up that way. On the other hand, it might be an overestimate
because most areas are only testing people who are clearly symptomatic. So, the CFR might not be taking into account
a large number of symptom-less and mild cases. Because of these and other sources of error,
experts say it can take months before you can accurately predict the eventual CFR for
a particular outbreak. So, it may be too soon to tell where COVID-19
will fall. Like, right now, experts disagree about how
many milder cases are being overlooked. Some think there aren’t a whole lot, while
others think there are tons—enough that the actual CFR is already below 1%. That seems to be the case in South Korea,
for example, where health officials had diligently tested 196 thousand people as of March 9. Their CFR is hovering around 0.7%. That might go up a bit if people who are very
sick right now don’t pull through, but it may not ever hit that global average of 3.4%. Which brings us to another reason CFRs can
be a bit misleading: They can vary a lot geographically. For example, within China, the CFR of COVID-19
has varied from about 4% to less than 1%. Part of the reason for that is that things
outside of the disease itself—like public health infrastructure, resources, and policies—can
have an impact on fatality rates. That’s because deaths tend to creep upward
when health systems become overburdened. If there aren’t enough doctors, hospital
beds, and supplies to give every person with serious symptoms the best care, then people
may die who would not have otherwise. This is why you see a lot of people harping
on about flu shots in places like the US. The two diseases have similar symptoms, so
treating flu cases can drain the resources needed for treating COVID-19. And non-disease factors are why it could be
really helpful to slow the spread of COVID-19, even if we can’t stop it. This is what everyone on Twitter is referring
to with the hashtag “flatten the curve.” The idea being that, overall, the same number
of people might get infected with the virus, but if the cases trickle in, they’re less
likely to drown facilities. And that means more people may survive. So just by washing your hands a lot and staying
home if you’re sick, you can help free up resources so health care workers can focus
on patients with COVID-19. I mean, that’s not the only reason to do
those things. You’ll also reduce the odds that you’ll
get the virus… which might be worse for you personally than the CFR suggests. Or, better. See, CFRs can help public health professionals
figure out how to best respond to an emerging disease. But they don’t do a great job of conveying
your individual risk. 4
Let’s compare COVID-19 to the seasonal flu again, because, well, everyone seems to want
to do that. Even if both diseases had the same CFR, they
might not pose equal risks to you. Influenza tends to hit both ends of the age
spectrum pretty hard. But COVID-19 has kind of ignored younger folks
so far. No one under the age of 10 died in the first
100,000 cases. Meanwhile this year’s flu has killed 125
kids and been especially bad for children in general. We don’t fully understand why these diseases
have such different effects on young humans. But, it may have something to do with how
developing immune systems react to different kinds of viruses. Researchers have found that the immune systems
of older mice react much more strongly to coronaviruses than those of younger mice. Something similar could happen in humans. And an immune response that’s too strong
can predispose people to the deadlier symptoms of respiratory infections. Aside from age, things like other health conditions
and past infections might influence how you react to being infected by this new coronavirus. You can’t get any of that from the overall
case fatality rate. Plus, you don’t have to die for a disease
to wreak havoc on your life. In fact, some research is trying to quantify
the severity of an outbreak by measuring other things, like the hospitalization rate, instead
of just fatalities. No matter what, even if your individual risk
of a severe coronavirus infection is low, we should all take this epidemic seriously,
because what we do right now matters. We have the chance to shape how this plays
out. And if we do all those things you keep hearing
about—like getting a flu shot, staying home when sick, and washing our hands well and
often—we can keep this thing from becoming the worst case scenario. Thanks for watching this episode of SciShow! And a special thanks to our patrons, who make
it possible for us to create videos like these. It takes a lot of people to put together a
SciShow episode and we couldn’t do it without our incredible community of supporters. If you’d like to help us keep SciShow going,
head over to patreon.com/SciShow. {♫Outro♫}

100 Comments found

User

SciShow

This is a reupload from earlier today. Thanks to those of you who pointed out our math mix up!

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User

Akino Luniverse

We desperately need HOSPITAL SUPPLIES. We need ACCESSIBLE TEST KITS for the public. We need FACE MASKS for the public. We need VACCINATION for the Virus.

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User

Djoran Keil

Why no mention of physical and social distancing?

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User

Tiffany Fichtenbaum

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/487280-nearly-70000-people-have-recovered-from

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User

Adam Tan

No!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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User

Tiffany Fichtenbaum

doctors arent testing mild cases or if you suspect it …you have to be super sick apparently

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User

Eric Nacilla

Stay home if you are sick is the worst possible advice i have ever heard!

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User

Ella Sorex

Very educational. Ty..

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User

vikingslayer34

I wonder if the anti-vaxxers who get infected will change their tune….

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Brian

WOW. Breaking news! Toilet paper packaging factories have had massive Coronavirus outbreaks. Please return your toilet paper to the store from which you purchased.

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Scarlet Heartdrip

Thanks for the info

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Ba A

Amy, I am quarantining myself for three months so don't even think about having coitus with me……signed Sheldon Cooper

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D Taylor

I came here for optimism. Didn’t find it 😷🦠

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The Humor Hole

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTWTg2oxa1k This is very helpful for Covid-19

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User

D S

It would've been good for details on relation between deaths so far, demographics, previous health conditions of those for a more realistic overview of those who are really at risk.

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Nick Bjerg Jensen

16.marts 77.700 recovered. 6.660 dead… 174.800 still effected…

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Nick Bjerg Jensen

In denmark we had masked robbers hitting hospitals for anti bacterial hand gel and other supplies and the hospitals dont even have enough for the sick in the long run! Some people are just animals!! 🙁 take care of eachother for Gods sake!

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User

Horse Talk

Flu has such a more hospitalization that with 0.05% of Death rate, yet has nearly 6x more than Cov_19!!!! 2020Around 200,000 Americans are hospitalized each year because of the flu, with the mortality rate between 4.2% and 10% of those hospitalized,

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Bryce Chadwick

I never get a flu shot. Every time I have, Ive gotten the flu, when I don’t I don’t.

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Jeff Sharratt

Thank you for citation sources. helps people understand the information and not spread misinformation.

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User

Aerox ⁣

I kinda feel bad for the beer called "Corona". Even though their brand has recieved an extreme increase in visibility for FREE the last months – people are too afraid to drink it… 😂

(Disclaimer: This is NOT a fact, and the beer has nothing to do with the virus.)

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Nihilistic Atheist

Don’t worry about the elderly, they’ve lived their lives. Look after yourselves. Stop worrying about other people.

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Joe American

My friends at SciShow I've a question. I had recently watched an interview with Dr. Oz. He noted that the corona virus can and does stay contagious for up to 9 days on surfaces. If this is correct, wouldn't it make sense that it will or can do the same on our currency? Just curious.

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Xastur Speaks

Not Covid-19 you mean Wujan Virus

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Your Friendly Neighborhood Goose

Got way to much severity way to quickly.
Bad for the player good for the AI

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User

fetus gerard's screams

soooo you can have covid 19 with no symptoms???

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Jake Stevens

It’s ‘Deceptively Simply’ if they have a clue how many have it. They don’t

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Paroxy DM

What exactly is the "worst case scenario"? A lot people get sick and a few people die? What happened to building the heard immunity?

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User

WildesThang

help further the research of the Corona Virus and a cure https://pcmasterrace.org/folding

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User

Leeann Mansfield

I only go out 1st a week anyway to tescos..

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User

Michael Esposito

Weird. How is this video still monetized? I though YouTube didn’t allow virus videos to be monetized?

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User

Sixth Element

Every time I mute this girl and put subtitles on .every.time.

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User

Mirko Martinović

I changed the resolution from 1080p to 240p, and I like it.

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User

blackened 1

As soon as I saw the nose rings, click off.

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joao carlos

why is COVID-19 Dangerous?!?!?! not a very good explanation.

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MrBoJangles

I went to Taco Bell last night and I need some damn toilet paper!!! Please for the love of god my BH is on 🔥

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User

Terezi Pyrope

So basically we shouldn't panic but we should still take the whole virus thing seriously.

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ap72sentinal

she looks like a litard

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Digamas

The facts are what we need, not hysterical ramblings. Thanks SciShow. Respect.

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starrychloe

South Korea has 6% fatality rate https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

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R.T RN

Me trying to learn about this thing meanwhile the internet's like..

https://teespring.com/Toilet-Paper-Survival?pid=2&cid=2122&sid=back

Oh.

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User

neverlistentome 0325

Wait, s Korea tested 196,000. did they find a lot of asymptomatic cases or not? Would that give you a good idea if the total cases are much higher than reported cases?
Additionally, as of March 16 deaths/total confirmed cases is 3.9% and deaths/recovered is 9% globally. Considering how many new cases in just the last 7 days wouldn't the reasonable assumption be that the CFR would go up not down?

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User

LAU1990

China Origin Virus I D – 2019

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User

Christa

Who knew 2020 would be the year for people battle for toilet paper

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SKB Artistry

I dont think it would be that hard again to predict the somewhat outcome of an epidemic. It's just an algorithm with a lot of variables. Incomprehensible for a human, but totally doable for a computer.

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Rob

Deez nuts are dangerous 🍆🥜🖕🏼

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Erik S

put your hands down

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User

Leoj Santos

Imma college student that lives in a dorm. Im broke and i see sll these people panic buying and im scared.

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Nitin Gupta

Is it true that plasma from a survivor can help a patient

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bkzwolf

https://youtu.be/TfKmOeZbVV4

Please watch and give your response on this. I personally believe this is dumb considering our body temperature shouldn't go anywhere NEAR this temperature. Especially in a place so close to the brain. I believe this is pointless if you're cooling it down you're likely not even reach close to this and likely just causing harm.

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Sere15

Dont go to the hospital if you have simptons call a doctor to your house instead letting them know your simptons previously bc depending on the country they may have a different protocol on what to do. Also if you feel sick please avoid public transportation

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agustin negri

Hi, does anybody know if the 0.1% flu's CFR is normalized to confirmed cases or also does take into account the non-confirmed, asymptomatic pacients? If flu's CFRit takes into account the asymptomatic cases, it's not possible to compare with the Covid CFR. Thanks in advance.

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Silver Fox

3:04 This is exactly what is happening right now here in Northern Italy. Please, everyone be cautious.

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Manatee Man

I was wondering why the original video was taken down. I feel embarrassed I hadn't even noticed the math error!

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jeff wei

4:30 it's spelled "hospitalization" sorry Rishi Pasham

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Steven Anguiano

I believe this was a targeted attack on our economy..

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Alwin Benjamin

Thank you mam.

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User

David Tapp

Simple and straight forward video. Peoples panic much more dangerous than virus. A shop assistant was stabbed today because the store was placing restrictions on quantity of purchase. How much worse can peoples panic get. PLEASE STOP!!!!!

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User

jared garden

Ok now can you tell people to stop buying out all the food and stuff everywhere.
I swear im gonna die of starvation before i even get the chance to contract it.

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Dimitris Mitsos

You didn't analyse how dangerous is for the economy too.

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User

Sudazima

so is it time yet to drastically increase science funding?

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User

Sudazima

chinas solution to the greying population.. 😛

this flatten the curve bussniss isnt all that since the hospital isnt actually going to do much as there is no cure

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User

NBaimf

As dangerous as the people who released it.

You can find their names here, Event 201

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Nyanna Ross

I need someone to tell me that covid-19 is a prank but they didn't expect the prank to go so far so they felt too bad to say something😖

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skorpia g

How deadly is it? People can get it TWICE😔

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Rasmus Nordgaard

Please make a video about flok immunity

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James P

Always stay Optimistic, at least they'll be less Traffic. 😀

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Anthony Lopez

42, here. Herpes survivor with stage 4 hypochondriac. I plan on going out a lot.

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Robert

I really don't see why this virus is so much worse that say the swine flu or other illnesses. For small business owners this will have a crippling effect that will kill their years revenue and put some out of business. Great more corporate America. This will also incite panic into our communities, if grocery stores run out of food, which may intern cause some real deaths, when people become looters by necessity. So I got to be honest I really don't believe our government is helping us out on this one. This may sound harsh 3-4 percent is alot of people, but it's not like the human race is on the brink of extinction. Trust me I love our elders I have learned so much from them and believe there is a lot of ethics lost on younger generations that I hope they will be able to bestow upon us. But I would love to start my own business one day and if we treat every new illness like this I don't know how any small business could make it especially starting out. this is what capitalism and free enterprise is supposed to be it seems to me like our government makes it harder every year to be successful. Personally I'll take a flu any day over hungry people that will take from the weak. The government is creating a much bigger problem so that the government can save us from it. Unless there is some major detail that we are not being told this is my stance on the current pandemic.

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Vimlesh Mishra

Is the outbreak an accidental leak of a developing biological weapon that was being developed by China

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Bleikr Sound

Walmart was out of Medieval plague masks.

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Dirk Tween

Nothing !!

>>Natural survival = 96%
>>Contagios ??
— Below 100 of 45,000,000 !!
>>Basic treatment ?
Survival OVER 99%
— BELOW 1% in QUARANTINE

WORSE stages #3 & #4

90% of deaths
(3% of total cases)
are from pneumonia !!

Identify stage #4 !!
It has OVER 65% DEATH RATE !!

Gone from 3.4% fatal
to
70% fatal !!

Stop stage #4, NOW !!

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Karl Dato

As always, well researched content. I wanted to add that rigorous testing is only one reason why the CFR in some countries is low. But it does not explain why there have been so few deaths in Germany to date — 12 as of today. One reason might be that the elderly have been cautious since early on, and now continua to be cautious. There are other reasons I can think of, but I keep them to myself; it's my rumour control, I don't want to start fake news 🙂

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My Gl

You can't use Chinese data in terms of cases vs fatalities. The government is censoring data.

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joseph Rapoza

Always great videos

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User

Gabriel Kröeger

Try not looking like the embodiment of misandry and ppl would listen to you

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User

shoved to the right?

It makes infection much easier when every doctors surgery has been closed in my city and patients are being redirected to the only hospital for 30 miles with an A&E (emergency room), that has 2 confirmed covid 19 patients in an A&E with an average of 36 hour waiting time for non essential treatment! Ergo this is biological warfare on the people of my city!

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Kevin's Journal

It's not just dangerous in health, but even in other areas of life. When you have cities shutting down, folks losing their jobs, students out if school, parents who have to take care kids, literally mentioned all this in my last video about ways it's impacting the world right now. Health's most important, but you need money and resources to take care of everything else.

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Yosef vg

3% hydrogen peroxide sprayed into the nose does not allow anything to go through and kills everything 100 percent. According to the prescription of Dr. Неумывакин, Иван Павлович

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DarlnDar

That whistle-blower Dr. Lee in Wuhan China died 3 days AFTER he was diagnoses!! He was MURDERED!!

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steve wittwer

How is a flu shot going to give protection against the covid19. It won't and cannot..

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GeekRedux

An episode explaining how virus test kits are developed and manufactured would be great. It seems like they've been pretty quick for kits for COVID-19.

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Bourdeaux Photo

I tried telling someone that you can’t compare China and U.S. medical care and living conditions. I was called racist 🤦🏽‍♂️🤦🏽‍♂️🤦🏽‍♂️

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L C

Choking on your own spit is more dangerous if mismanaged… you only need to know what to do.

Create conditions unbearable for the virus and you’re good. Not doing this (mismanaging) becomes fatal.

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J C

That thing in the nose is so annoying!

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Chris costa

I have a question, anyone who knows the answer please let me know, Can someone have both the flu and corona virus at the same time, and if so does that mean people might be misdiagnosed with only flu? Also does it also mean you might have more severe symptoms ?

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Enzo Gorlami

Jesus, why the long face?

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Tyranosaurus Rodd

Did SciShow folk take speaking coaching classes? This slooooow talk is really annoying. It is getting worse.

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Fox D

People say 3% is no big deal…I got a proposition for you.

Take five revolvers. One live bullet and 29 blanks.

Russian roulette. Wanna shoot?

Didn't think so.

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Cassandra Li

I feel like no social content has informed people that even people who are "cured" from the virus, they aren't really cured.. its just anti-biotics that help the body to make the virus under control. the virus is still damaging the organs and it will come back.

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KiranasOfRizon

CFR should not be computed using live cases. If you have Covid-19 right this second, you shouldn't be counted as either a survivor or a death. Ideally, you should compute over only the closed cases. So take the number of cases as the number of recoveries plus the number of deaths, then do deaths/cases * 100. According to the website worldometers.info, as of the time I am typing this comment, there have been 7,987 deaths and 82,762 recoveries globally. These are people who do not have Covid-19 anymore, either because they died from it or they got better. Using these numbers, however, this suggests that the probability of dying from Covid-19 is around 8.8%. But as should be noted, this is not taking into account where people are from (which might influence how they are treated), or what factors people might have that might make it more likely to kill them.

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Ash G

Hank you for this.
I understand that the pathogen works the same as influenza.
That we are taking on another virus.
However, I work for a lot academic infrastructure and I do not believe the polices are appropriate.
As a first aider and first response professional could you please advise what my team should be preparing for.
What equipment, response tactics and how to approach situations please?
I have been informed for example that anti bacterial does not work due to not bacterial issues but viruses need alcohol base? Thanks
Ash
Immediate
Services

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tom4ivo

It's not the virus that kills you, it't the immune system's response that kills you. Too strong a response causes the lungs to get leaky and develop pneumonia, and if you don't suffocate, you can later on get bacterial lung infections which are also deadly. That could explain the demographic curve in fatalities.

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rukain

🧐🧐👍👍

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gblueslover2

I'm not bullshitting. I started coming down with Covid 19 symptoms and used fluticasone propionate Nasal Spray and it knocked it out !

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Tyler Andrews

It just hit me. Is someone monitoring CO2 emissions and air quality during the quarantine? I’d be interested to see how air quality changes with so few people traveling.

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B_break

People be buying months worth of toilet paper like hey got diarrhea every hour of their life

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Ada Chan

but I'm nine
yay I won't die
hopefully……

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Nonyo Bizness

She is such a BORING presenter. Take a speech class! You’re getting paid for this, so learn how to do it!

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Dark_Angel07

I don't mean to brag but I've been avoiding people long before the Coronavirus.

Reply

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